Integrating Future Land Use Scenarios to Evaluate the Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Landscape Ecological Security

Urban ecological security is the basic principle of national ecological security. However, analyses of the spatial and temporal dynamics of ecological security remain limited, especially those that consider different scenarios of urban development. In this study, an integrated method is proposed that combines the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects (CLUE-S) model with the Pressure–State–Response (P-S-R) framework to assess landscape ecological security (LES) in Huangshan City, China under two scenarios. Our results suggest the following conclusions: (1) the spatial and temporal dynamics of ecological security are closely related to the urbanization process; (2) although the average values of landscape ecological security are similar under different scenarios, the areas of relatively high security levels vary considerably; and (3) spatial heterogeneity in ecological security exists between different districts and counties, and the city center and its vicinity may face relatively serious declines in ecological security in the future. Overall, the proposed method not only illustrates the spatio-temporal dynamics of landscape ecological security under different scenarios but also reveals the anthropogenic effects on ecosystems by differentiating between causes, effects, and human responses at the landscape scale. This information is of great significance to decision-makers for future urban planning and management.